A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
